Latest news and industry trends in the distressed debt and restructuring markets
The 2017 Debtwire European Distressed Debt Outlook report surveyed 100 distressed investors and 30 private equity funds to establish the outlook for 2017. Jointly sponsored by Orrick and Greenhill, the report predicts that European restructurings will hit their next peak in 2017, with respondents citing interest rate rises (22%), geopolitical conflict (21%) and Brexit (16%) as the most important macroeconomic factors driving this trend. READ MORE
Focus on the AB InBev and SABMiller merger
Having received the sanction of antitrust regulators in Europe, the U.S., China and South Africa, the planned merger of brewing giants AB InBev and SABMiller was scrutinised this week by the High Court in London on a topic very familiar to those acquainted with English law restructurings: class composition. The outcome of the hearing, that not all members of SABMiller should be considered to be in the same class for scheme voting purposes, raises some interesting questions around class composition because of the unusual circumstances of the proposed merger. READ MORE
Orrick partner and co-head of Europe Restructuring Stephen Phillips recently joined a Debtwire panel on potential high yield restructurings in Europe and current volatile market conditions at the 12th European Distressed Debt Market Outlook. Several videos from the launch are now available on Debtwire’s site.
For more information, please contact Stephen.
Distressed investors did not witness the anticipated wave of European high yield restructurings in 2015, but with significant stock market declines and a growing sense of economic anxiety, participants in the 12th European Distressed Debt Market Outlook expect a marked increase in restructuring activity in 2016. Despite improved European growth and stronger U.S. economic data, falling commodity prices (particularly oil) and the higher number of high yield bonds trading at distressed levels suggest another year of volatility is in store.
Orrick partner and co-head of Europe Restructuring Stephen Phillips recently joined the Debtwire panel addressing these issues. For more information, please contact Stephen.
To access the full report, click here.
For those focused on the debt restructuring market, the Greek sovereign crisis (covered extensively in our recent updates1) has drowned out news of other debt restructuring matters this year. Our Alert below addresses key trends in Europe and the Emerging Markets this year which may have gone unnoticed given the understandable emphasis on Greece.
Opportunities for Distressed Debt Funds to buy attractively priced distressed corporate assets and work them out have been few and far between in recent terms. Prices of distressed assets have been high, and often par lenders have decided to extend and amend loans (rather than engage in loan sales to funds or effect fundamental work outs of problem loans). Risk has not been fairly reflected in the price of either primary or secondary market debt. The risk/reward dynamic has been skewed in favour of high risk and low yields; not an attractive combination. The main driver of the activities of Distressed Debt Funds is the default rate. In the 2015 Deutsche Bank Annual Default Survey, Deutsche Bank commented, ‘We can’t overstate how low defaults are…the 2010-2014 cohort [of High Yield Bonds] is the lowest 5 year period for HY defaults in modern history’. Hence, the low level of distressed debt activity.
Poor European growth rates, the difficult backdrop of the Greek debt restructuring talks, and major geopolitical risk, have yielded surprisingly few loan defaults and insolvencies in recent times. In Europe, restructuring activity has tended to be concentrated more in Southern than Northern Europe.
Distressed investments will be on the rise in 2015, particularly in Europe, according to Debtwire Europe’s 11th European Distressed Debt Outlook, produced in association with Orrick and Rothschild. High yield bonds, in-court workouts and direct lending are also expected to gain traction in 2015, with economic growth in the EU anticipated to be low or stagnant.
Orrick Partner and Co-head of Europe Restructuring, Stephen Phillips, recently spoke on the Debtwire panel addressing these issues. For additional information, please contact Stephen.
The full report is attached here.